The Need for Organisational Resilience Chapter 5

• Well trained staff must be available, when setting up the JOPG for war gaming.

Especially, a coordinator has to be appointed. He will be responsible for the preparation

and the conduct of war gaming in terms of contents and organization.

• Constraints and restraints for the friendly conduct of operations as well as for the

opposing forces’ (OPFOR) COAs assumed conduct of operations have to be identified,

made available for war gaming and followed.

• Operational analysis (OA) includes not only the development and application of

mathematical models, statistical analyses and simulations but also the application of

expertise and experience for the determination of quantitative factors for friendly and

opponents’ COAs. Mathematical models and simulations, and the interpretation of their

results, form the core of OA. The results indicate trends and tendencies, and as such are

only one factor to be considered in decision-making. The quality of these trends and

tendencies depends on the quality of the initial factors. These models simplify reality,

which is especially true for asymmetrical scenarios. The scope of OA has to be agreed

upon between the coordinator, the head of JOPG, and the OA experts. If available and

time allows, war gaming can benefit from OA support from the very beginning, whether it

is conducted in a computer-based or manual manner.

Preparing and conducting war games.

This involves determining: the desired type of outcome, the method and scope of the game; and

the participants of the game including subordinate commands, friendly, opposing and eventually

neutral players (Blue, Red and Green Teams), referees, expert arbitrators and recorders. In

addition, the operational situation must be prepared, tools for manual or computer assisted

simulation and analysis, and rules need to be established.

While there are benefits to a war game, it must be noted that preparing a joint staff war game

may be cost, manpower and time intensive. The conduct of a war game is determined largely by the

desired outcomes, selected method and the scope. War games will include:

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