The Need for Organisational Resilience - Chapter 7

At its best

Signs of weakness

Germany, post-1940

People are wary about what

People are too certain of how

The early successes in the

could go wrong

things are

Polish and French campaigns

in 1940 led to the doctrine of

Opportunities and problems are

Signs of problems are missed;

the lightning war. In the light of

noticed, understood and

people who raise issues are

subsequent failures, such as in

addressed quickly

ignored; people don’t report

North Africa and Russia in

errors

1941-1945, critical voices were

People exercise judgement,

People diffuse responsibility

subdued by an ever-growing

discretion, and imagination

for resolving problems and

centralisation of decision

when faced with challenges

defer decision making and

making power.

action to others

People are empowered to act

People are blamed quickly if

when they recognise a problem

they make errors or fail to

follow procedures

Table 7.5: Performance optimisation: at its best; signs of weakness; Germany post-1940 (Adapted from Denyer 2017)

Mindful capabilities in the German armed forces eroded over time due to complacency

and the lack of “space” and desire to innovate. The resulting indoctrination of “best” practice

led to the silencing of visionaries. The pressure exercised by the Allies and subsequent

failures and losses sustained by the Germans led to greater centralisation, to an “I know

better” mentality. Constructive conflict was stifled, and responsibility diffused. Key decision

maker became increasingly mindless, “blindly” following authority, rank and status.

The Fallacy of Hindsight

It is an old saying that military leaders tend to fight the previous war, as long as they

emerged as a winner. Hindsight in this respect is a double-edged sword. It enables

managers to replicate a winning formula, yet it drives rigidity that is counterproductive for

managing a future that is anything but like the past.

The winning formula in many organisations such as Kodak, British Airways, Volkswagen,

and Uber, appeared to be to rely on ‘best practice’: professional ways of working that are

accepted or prescribed as having been self-evidently correct or most effective in the past.

Each fallacious belief, self-evidently correct but ultimately a mistaken belief based on

unsound arguments, tends to be reinforced over time, particular in the absence of failure.

Hindsight bias implies that organisations tend to recall information that confirms what they

believe to be true, and ignore or discount information that might challenge this ‘easy-to-hold’

belief.

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