The Need for Organisational Resilience - Chapter 7

Definition

Manifestation from an Allied perspective

Ambiguity effect

The tendency to avoid options that are

WWI provided a sense of certainty about what

deemed uncertain.

had worked in the past. More ambiguous options

were deemed uncertain and thus rejected.

Anchoring effect

The tendency to manifest expectations by

The expectation of a German attack in the north

relying too heavily on a single piece of

was “anchored” by the Mechelen incident (see

information.

Chapter 2)

Bandwagon effect

The predominant perception of defensive action

The influence of group-think and herd

prevailed. The immense costs associated, for

behaviour.

example, reinforced a common perception of

invulnerability.

Confirmation Bias

The tendency to have one’s preconceptions

The initial successes by the French in the north

confirmed.

confirmed their preconception of the centre of

gravity. “Framed” information from the front-line in

the south (see Framing effect) did not fit this

preconception, and thus they were largely

ignored.

Conservatism

The tendency to revise one’s preconception

The initial indication of a German breakthrough at

insufficiently in the light of new information.

Sedan were ignored, as their ‘anchored’

Related to Anchoring Bias.

expectation was constrained to an attack in the

north.

Courtesy bias

To provide opinions that are socially correct

The military system is largely defined by rank and

and acceptable.

status, and the need to pay courtesy to it.

Curse of knowledge

The Allied High Command received information

A tendency to belief that with more

from the front-line, although often outdated and

knowledge, one “knows-better”.

unreliable. The perception, though, of having

access to more information, was constructed as

“We know better.”

Focusing effect

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