The Need for Organisational Resilience - Chapter 7

The tendency to pay too much attention to a

The focus of the Allied command was

singular event.

predominantly on a single stretch of front line in

the north; assuming that a breakthrough by the

Germans at the centre or in the South was

“impossible”.

Framing effect

Drawing different conclusions from the same

“There has been a rather serious hitch at Sedan.”

information, depending on how that

is a piece of information that was presented to the

information is presented.

French High Command in the form of a situation

report; framed as something non-urgent (see also

confirmation bias).

Illusion of control

The tendency to overestimate’s one’s

A perception of control persisted in the Allied High

influence over external events.

Command, despite receipt of contradictory

information.

Normalcy bias

A refusal to plan, or to react, to abnormal

The norm in WWI was to entrench oneself against

events.

to the power of artillery fire. This norm was

manifested with the construction of the Maginot

Line.

Ostrich effect

Ignoring an obvious (negative) situation.

Refusal to accept that a breakthrough had

occurred in a very vulnerable section of the front

line persisted until the Allied forces were

encircled.

Sunk cost fallacy

Increased investment in a decision “justifies” a

The building of the Maginot Line came at an

decision.

immense cost to the French economy. It was a

manifestation of France’s defensive stance.

Table 7.6: Cognitive Biases and Heuristics

These biases and heuristics were prevalent on both sides, and can be expected in any

organisation. Left untreated, they may well lead to an erosion of resilience over time; to a

mode of resilience that has been identified as the “norm”, that has been already invested in,

one that has been “anchored” as an irrefutable, self-evidently correct doctrine.

Nevertheless, to counter such bias and its unfortunate impact on eroding resilience a

process of scrutiny needs to be started: this tends to be referred to in the Military as “Red

Teaming”. Red Teaming is based on constructive conflict: an open, honest and critical

discourse that aims to resolve the multiplicity of the most important and diverse conflicting

perspectives.

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